Survival Analysis of Cancer Patients in North Eastern Nigeria from 2004 – 2017 – A Kaplan - Meier Method

  • Patience I. Adamu Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria
  • Muminu O. Adamu Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria
  • Hilary I. Okagbue Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria
  • Laban Opoola Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos, Nigeria
  • Sheila A. Bishop Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria
Keywords: Boko Haram, Cancer, Censoring, Cohort, Kaplan Meier, Life expectancy, Northeast Nigeria, Statistics, Survival analysis


BACKGROUND: Cancer is a deadly malignant disease and is prevalent in Sub Saharan Africa. The North East part of Nigeria in particular and the country, in general, are struggling to cope with the increasing burden of cancer and other communicable and non-communicable diseases. The situation is worsened by the ongoing insurgency and terrorist activities in the area.

AIM: The aim of this paper is to present the research findings from a cohort study aimed at the analysis of the estimation of the survivorship time of the real data of cancer patients in the North-eastern part of Nigeria and to establish if the insurgency in the region has contributed negatively to the life expectancy of its inhabitants.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: The record of 1,090 patients from medical records departments of the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital (UMTH), located in Maiduguri, the capital city of Borno State in northeast Nigeria was obtained. The record showed patients that were diagnosed and died of one type of cancer or the other from 2004 to 2017. All the cancer cases included in the present study were grouped into sex, age, marital status, occupation, date admitted and date of death/discharge. Descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meier method were used to analyse the data using SPSS version 23 while Microsoft EXCEL and Minitab 16.0 were used for data cleansing and organisation.

RESULTS: Of the 1,090 patients analysed, 920 (84.40%) experienced the event, i.e. death, while 170 (15.60%) patients were censored. The data were analysed based on the ages and sex of the patients. 50.20% of the patients were of ages 21-50 years. The proportions of patients in this age bracket surviving past 7 days are 75%, while those between ages 80 years and above is 12 days. Others are of survival time of 5 days (ages 0-20 years) and 7 days (51-79 years). Using sex, 75% of the patients’ survival time is 7 days in the case of male and 6 days for females. It is safe to say that the survival time for cancer patients of the university the Maiduguri is 6 days and the result reflects the Northeastern part of Nigeria. This is because the hospital is one of few tertiary healthcare facilities in that area and consequently, cancer cases are often referred there.

CONCLUSION: Cancer incidence is high, and the probability of survival reduces as the survival time increases. This is a dire situation in need of urgent intervention from the government, groups and individuals to tackle the scourge of cancer, thereby improving on the life expectancy battered by the ongoing Boko Haram insurgency in that region.


Download data is not yet available.


Metrics Loading ...

Plum Analytics Artifact Widget Block


Khan A, Cheri L. An Examination of Poverty as the Foundation of Crisis in Northern Nigeria. Insight Afr. 2016; 8(2):59-71.

Omole O, Welye H, Abimbola S. Boko Haram insurgency: Implications for Public Health. The Lancet. 2015: 385(9972):941.

Dunn G. The impact of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeast Nigeria on childhood wasting: a double-difference study. Conflict and health. 2018;12(1):6. PMid:29410702 PMCid:PMC5782364

Amusan L, Ejoke UP. The psychological trauma inflicted by Boko Haram insurgency in the North Eastern Nigeria. Aggression and violent behavior. 2017; 36:52-9.

Roberts L. Nigeria's Invisible Crisis: Hunger Amplifies Infectious Diseases for Millions fleeing the Violence of Boko Haram. Sci. 2017; 356(6333):18-23. PMid:28385968

Cumber SN, Jaila S, Nancy B, Tsoka-Gwegweni JM. Under five malnutrition crises in the Boko Haram area of Cameroon. South African Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 2017; 30(2):41-2.

Bigna JJR. Polio Eradication Efforts in Regions of Geopolitical Strife: The Boko Haram Threat to Efforts in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afr. Health Sci. 2016; 16(2):584-7. PMid:27605975 PMCid:PMC4994566

Oguntunde PE, Adejumo AO, Okagbue HI. Breast Cancer Patients in Nigeria: Data exploration approach. Data in Brief. 2017; 15: 47-57. PMid:28971122 PMCid:PMC5612794

Adamu PI, Oguntunde PE, Okagbue HI, Agboola OO. Statistical data analysis of cancer incidences in insurgency affected states in Nigeria. Data in Brief. 2018; 18:2029-2046. PMid:29904711 PMCid:PMC5998707

Adejumo AO, Ikoba NA, Suleiman EA, Okagbue HI, Oguntunde PE, Odetunmibi OA, Job O. Quantitative Exploration of Factors influencing Psychotic Disorder Ailments in Nigeria. Data in Brief. 2017; 14:175-85. PMid:28795095 PMCid:PMC5537424

Olawande TI, Okagbue HI, Jegede AS, Edewor PA, Fasasi LT. Survey datasets on patterns of utilization of mental healthcare services among people living with mental illness. Data in Brief. 2018; 19:2095-2103. PMid:30229086 PMCid:PMC6141371

Adamu PI, Adamu MO, Okagbue HI. Data in support of high rate of pregnancy related deaths in Maiduguri, Borno State, Northeast Nigeria. Data in Brief. 2018; 18:409-414. PMid:29900198 PMCid:PMC5996266

Adejumo AO, Suleiman EA, Okagbue HI, Oguntunde PE, Odetunmibi OA. Quantitative Evaluation of Pregnant Women Delivery Status' Records in Akure, Nigeria. Data in Brief. 2018; 16:127-34. PMid:29201979 PMCid:PMC5699871

Adamu PI, Oguntunde PE, Okagbue HI, Agboola OO. On the Epidemiology and Statistical Analysis of HIV/AIDS Patients in the Insurgency Affected States of Nigeria. Open Access Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences. 2018; 6(7):1315-1321. PMid:30087744 PMCid:PMC6062286

Brand M, Gaylard P, Ramos J. Colorectal cancer in South Africa: An assessment of disease presentation, treatment pathways and 5-year survival. South African Medical Journal. 2018; 108(2):118-122. PMid:29429443

Okwor VC, Fagbamigbe AF, Fawole OI. Survivorship of patients with head and neck cancer receiving care in a tertiary health facility in Nigeria. Cancer Management and Research. 2017; 9:331-338. PMid:28790865 PMCid:PMC5531721

Gizaw M, Addissie A, Getachew S, Ayele W, Mitiku I, Moelle U, Yusuf T, Begoihn M, Assefa M, Jemal A, Kantelhardt EJ. Cervical cancer patients presentation and survival in the only oncology referral hospital, Ethiopia: A retrospective cohort study. Infectious Agents and Cancer. 2017; 12(1):61. PMid:29213299 PMCid:PMC5708091

Butt JL, Botha MH. Vulvar cancer is not a disease of the elderly: Treatment and outcome at a tertiary referral centre in South Africa. South African Medical Journal. 2017; 107(11):1000-1004. PMid:29262943

Sengayi MM, Kielkowski D, Egger M, Dreosti L, Bohlius J. Survival of patients with Kaposi's sarcoma in the South African antiretroviral treatment era: A retrospective cohort study. South African Medical Journal. 2017; 107(10):871-876. PMid:29022531 PMCid:PMC5913753

Hou G-X, Liu P, Yang J, Wen S.Mining expression and prognosis of topoisomerase isoforms in non-small-cell lung cancer by using Oncomine and Kaplan-Meier plotter. PLoS ONE. 2017; 12(3):e0174515. PMid:28355294 PMCid:PMC5371362

Han Y, Lu X, Wang G. STAT3 inhibitor enhances chemotherapy drug efficacy by modulating mucin 1 expression in non-small cell lung carcinoma. Tropical Journal of Pharmaceutical Research. 2017; 16(7):1513-1521.

Oyekunle AA, Durosinmi MA, Bolarinwa RA, Owojuyigbe T, Salawu L, Akinola NO. Chronic myeloid leukemia in Nigerian patients: Anemia is an independent predictor of overall survival. Clinical Medicine Insights: Blood Disorders. 2016;9:9-13.

Català A, Garces JR, Alegre M, Gich IJ, Puig L. Mohs micrographic surgery for basal cell carcinomas: Results of a Spanish retrospective study and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of tumour recurrence. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology. 2014; 28(10):1363-1369. PMid:25383396

Cao N, Zhao A, Zhao G, Wang X, Han B, Lin R, Zhao Y, Yang J. Survival analysis of 272 patients with pancreatic cancer undergoing combined treatment. Integrative Cancer Therapies. 2015; 14(2):133-139. PMid:25567328

Ebili HO, Iyawe VO, Adeleke KR, Salami BA, Banjo AA, Nolan C, Rakha E, Ellis I, Green A, Agboola AOJ. Checkpoint Kinase 1 Expression Predicts Poor Prognosis in Nigerian Breast Cancer Patients. Molecular Diagnosis and Therapy. 2018; 22(1):79-90. PMid:29075961

Ikpatt OF, Kuopio T, Collan Y, Ndoma-Egba R. Tubular differentiation in African breast cancer. Advances in clinical pathology: the official journal of Adriatic Society of Pathology. 2003; 7(1):27-32.

Buhmeida A, Al-Maghrabi J, Merdad A, Al-Thubaity F, Chaudhary A, Gari M, Abuzenadah A, Collan Y, Syrjänen K, Al-Qahtani M. Nuclear morphometry in prognostication of breast cancer in Saudi Arabian patients: Comparison with European and African breast cancer. Anticancer Research. 2010; 30(6):2185-2191. PMid:20651368

Ahmed A, Ukwenya AY, Makama JG, Mohammad I. Management and outcome of gastric carcinoma in Zaria, Nigeria. African Health Sciences. 2011; 11(3):353-361. PMid:22275924 PMCid:PMC3261017

Agboola AJ, Musa AA, Wanangwa N, Abdel-Fatah T, Nolan CC, Ayoade BA, Oyebadejo TY, Banjo AA, Deji-Agboola AM, Rakha EA, Green AR, Ellis IO. Molecular characteristics and prognostic features of breast cancer in Nigerian compared with UK women. Breast Cancer Research and Treatment. 2012; 135(2):555-569. PMid:22842985

Ayoade BA, Agboola AJ, Olatunji AA, Tade AO, Salami BA, Adekoya AO. Clinical characteristics and survival outcome of breast cancer in Southwest Nigerian women. Journal Africain du Cancer. 2014; 6(2):79-84.

Oyekunle AA, Durosinmi MA, Bolarinwa RA, Owojuyigbe T, Salawu L, Akinola NO. Chronic myeloid leukemia in Nigerian patients: Anemia is an independent predictor of overall survival. Clinical Medicine Insights: Blood Disorders. 2016; 9:9-13.

Aluloski I, Tanturovski M, Jovanovic R, Kostadinova-Kunovska S, Petrusevska G, Stojkovski I, Petreska B. Survival of Advanced Stage High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer Patients in the Republic of Macedonia. Open access Macedonian journal of medical sciences. 2017; 5(7):904-908. PMid:29362616 PMCid:PMC5771292

Wang XJ, Chi P, Zhang YY, Lin HM, Lu XR, Huang Y, Xu ZB, Ghareeb WM, Huang SH, Sun YW, Ye DX. Survival outcome of adjuvant radiotherapy after local excision for T2 early rectal cancer: An analysis based on the surveillance, epidemiology, and end result registry database. European Journal of Surgical Oncology. 2018; 44(12):1865-72. PMid:30262325

Ren F, Zhang J, Gao Z, Zhu H, Chen X, Liu W, Xue Z, Gao W, Wu R, Lv Y, Hu L. Racial disparities in the survival time of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma between Chinese patients and patients of other racial groups: A population-based study from 2004 to 2013. Oncology Letters. 2018; 16(6):7102-7116.

Sun Y, Gong J, Guo B, Shang J, Cheng Y, Xu H. Association of adjuvant radioactive iodine therapy with survival in node-positive papillary cancer. Oral Oncology. 2018; 87:152-157. PMid:30527231

Ren J, Niu G, Wang X, Song T, Hu Z, Ke C. Effect of Age on Prognosis of Gastric Signet-Ring Cell Carcinoma: A SEER Database Analysis. Medical science monitor: international medical journal of experimental and clinical research. 2018; 24:8524-8532. PMid:30473583 PMCid:PMC6278247

Yu TJ, Liu YY, Hu X, Di GH. Survival following breast-conserving therapy is equal to that following mastectomy in young women with early-stage invasive lobular carcinoma. European Journal of Surgical Oncology. 2018; 44(11):1703-7. PMid:30029824

Yu TJ, Liu YY, Hu X, Di GH. No survival improvement of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy among women with invasive lobular carcinoma. Journal of surgical oncology. 2018; 118(6):928-35. PMid:30311653

Krasnow RE, Rodríguez D, Nagle RT, Mossanen M, Kibel AS, Chang SL. The impact of age at the time of radiotherapy for localized prostate cancer on the development of second primary malignancies. InUrologic Oncology: Seminars and Original Investigations. 2018; 36(11):500-e11. Elsevier.

Oranges CM, Sisti G, Nasioudis D, Tremp M, Di Summa PG, Kalbermatten DF, Largo RD, Schaefer DJ. Hard palate melanoma: A population-based analysis of epidemiology and survival outcomes. Anticancer Research. 2018; 38(10):5811-5817. PMid:30275204

How to Cite
Adamu PI, Adamu MO, Okagbue HI, Opoola L, Bishop SA. Survival Analysis of Cancer Patients in North Eastern Nigeria from 2004 – 2017 – A Kaplan - Meier Method. Open Access Maced J Med Sci [Internet]. 2019Feb.22 [cited 2020Nov.26];7(4):642-9. Available from:
E - Public Health

Most read articles by the same author(s)